Tariffs Are Reshaping Consumer Expectations at Checkout

Kubera
July 7, 2025
5
min read

Tariffs are no longer just a trade policy issue. They have become a visible part of how shoppers think about pricing, values and the brands they support. According to PYMNTS Intelligence and Visa Acceptance Solutions, nearly half of U.S. consumers now expect tariffs to raise prices at double the current inflation rate.

This shift is forcing retailers to respond not just with pricing strategies, but with a clear understanding of their customers’ beliefs.

Three Shopper Mindsets

The study outlines three key consumer profiles:

  • Value-first shoppers (39%) care most about price. They are cutting back, trading down and looking for the lowest cost.
  • Buy-American advocates (34%) support tariffs and are willing to pay more for goods made in the U.S.
  • Indifferent consumers (27%) care more about convenience and experience than cost or country of origin.

These groups are not just shopping segments. They are cultural identities. Each reflects a different set of expectations about what retailers should offer and why.

Shoppers Are Changing Their Behaviour

More than 80% of consumers have already taken steps to adjust for the financial impact of tariffs. On average, each shopper has made five changes, including buying fewer items, switching brands and delaying purchases. Nearly half have already changed their shopping habits.

Retailers are adapting in several ways:

  • Grocers are offering tiered pricing options to serve both value-focused and premium shoppers
  • Brands like Everlane and Rothy’s are highlighting their U.S. production to justify higher costs
  • AI is helping retailers segment audiences by values, not just by purchase history

These changes reflect a larger trend. Consumers are looking for brands that reflect their views and offer transparency around sourcing, pricing and intent.

Mass Marketing No Longer Works

As tariffs become more visible to the average shopper, one-size-fits-all messaging is becoming less effective. Retailers need to tailor communications, segment audiences and reflect distinct priorities across different groups.

Technology can help, but so can brand clarity. Businesses that communicate their values clearly, and offer flexible options to meet shifting demand, will be better positioned to adapt when tariffs change again.

Next Steps for Merchants

Tariffs are changing more than prices. They are changing expectations. Today’s consumer wants more than a low-cost option. They want context, values and transparency. Retailers that fail to deliver may lose trust before they lose a sale.

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